Tweeted On: July 11, 2020, 1:04 p.m.
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1/ Current landscape:
A safely-proven Covid-19 vaccine is not likely until 2021. Vaccinating the world will take more than a year. Some 40% may not get vaccinated. Covid is here to stay, and will likely keep mutating.
2/ We’ve not yet created a vaccine for any coronavirus.
Not a coronavirus, but HIV has been with us for decades, with no cure found. Tens of millions of lives lost or forever changed.
Horribly, many survivors of Covid-19 are still suffering harsh health effects.
3/ Living with the virus in the population is the new normal until at least 2022, even wtih a vaccine, and longer b/c many will refuse vaccination. We must all adapt to minimize the harm and resume life as we can. Hopefully, the virus won’t mutate to vaccine-resistant strains.
4/ The truth seems to be that living with this virus — and its likely mutations, given how fast it’s spreading — is now potentially an all-but indefinite reality.
Masks may still be recommended in 2022... and beyond.
5/ The economy has obviously been upended. The longer this continues, the more job losses become permanent. We already won’t return to the old normal. And hiring people back is only done when truly necessary. If it can be avoided by cost-conscious companies, it will be.
6/ The idea of pent-up economic demand eventually being unleashed is only partly true. About 67% of the U.S. economy is services related, which are often time-sensitive activities. Once the time passes, it doesn’t return again. It’s a missed opportunity.
7/ Financial ruin for a family or individual can be as difficult to climb out of mentally as it is financially. The toll of the stress is high.
8/ As the economy changes, digital transformation is being pulled forward. That doesn’t just mean that future revenue is instead being earned today. It means it begins to be earned this year and every year, compounding years earlier than projected. Hence, tech stocks rising.
9/ It’s popular today to say that the stock market is not the economy. But in the long run, history suggests it is. Stocks have risen with GDP for decades. Of course, some stocks will benefit even if GDP doesn’t — these days, that’s largely tech.
10/ Low interest rates are likely here for years, which makes stocks more attractive. If inflation returns, stocks are good at fighting inflation. Maybe people are just realizing stocks are one of the best long-term investments, period.
11/ Owning a part of a growing company, with optionality to boot, is more powerful than just earning interest. And given how quickly a company can scale its revenue online (a global marketplace), value creation in winning stocks can appear absurdly fast.
12/ Tech is now cemented as inevitable. We all knew this was happening, but it was unfolding at a measured pace. Now, it’s necessary for any promising business to have a tech-centric approach — today. Most companies are still working to get there.
13/ People are highly adaptable. Even in a pandemic, we will adapt to the new normal. A big question is will we do so together, or at arms with one another? Dislocation is upsetting, and plays out in various ways. It’s a new battleground.
14/ Impatience and ignorance (“ignore” being a key part of that word — ignore science, ignore experts) have put the US in a bad way with the virus, and often with one another.
15/15 There’s a long road ahead, but almost never as long as it seems. Solutions will emerge — it’s mainly a question of how much struggle will be necessary to arrive at them. Enjoy what you have, meanwhile. Keep your senses sharp.
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