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1/ The vaccine debate is only simmering, but it’s likely to be a subject of great importance soon.

2/ In the past, vaccines have taken 10-15 years to be developed and tested. Yes, science and safety have improved, but the current timeline for a COVID-19 vaccine is still unprecedented. (Vaccine history: https://t.co/z2DoUYzuTy)
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Vaccine Development, Testing, and Regulation | History of Vaccines
https://bit.ly/2XgqiT4
Vaccine development is a long, complex process, often lasting 10-15 years and involving a combination of public and private involvement. …

3/ If a vaccine is available as soon as this year or in 2021, its long-term safety or effects will not yet have been tested. We don’t have long-term knowledge of the virus itself, of course, and its effects.

4/ Current thinking is that front-line workers and the most vulnerable should get the vaccine first. But why should they carry the risks of the vaccine’s unknowns before anyone else — let alone prematurely?

5/ Those who are able to live a low-risk life right now have an incentive to wait and see how the vaccine plays out over months, if not longer. They can avoid the risk if wished. Yet, they can say they’re letting others get it first out of generosity.

6/ Governments have suggested that essential workers should get the vaccine first, too. They say this as if it’s only a positive. But they don’t know that yet, and won’t know.

7/ I believe in the effectiveness of time-tested vaccines. I’m merely admitting a new vaccine will not have been tested for long-term safety. So, administering it to the population has all kinds of social complexity given the unknowns.

8/ Most of us have a decision ahead: Get vaccinated right away, as soon as possible? Or wait a good long while to see that it’s really safe over time? Or, for some, never get it.

9/ What if proof you’ve been vaccinated becomes required to get on a plane? Or enter another country? Or attend school? Then how long do you wait?

10/ I don’t have answers, obviously. It’s going to be a fascinating debate — because only time can ultimately prove a vaccine is safe. So, usually ample years are taken before starting to vaccinate the population.

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